Confira aqui a dissertação do pesquisador do ISAPE, Athos Munhoz Moreira da Silva, sobre a ascensão da China e os seus impactos para o leste asiático. Com base em uma análise histórica da ascensão chinesa, o trabalho trata da alteração fundamental na polaridade e na polarização regionais, com implicações em âmbito global. Constata-se que, diante da rivalidade estratégica entre Estados Unidos e China, os demais atores regionais buscam manter sua autonomia e margem de manobra entre as duas potências. Consideram-se três possíveis perspectivas para o leste asiático: uma hegemonia chinesa sem ocorrência de guerra central; o acirramento das tensões entre Pequim e Washington, com possibilidade de guerra central; e a concertação e criação de mecanismos de governança entre os atores regionais, podendo ser anárquica — sem líderes aparentes — ou hierárquica — condomínio de potências —.
Confira aqui o artigo dos pesquisadores associados do ISAPE Gustavo Feddersen, Bruno Magno, Athos Munhoz e João Chiarelli publicado na revista Conjuntura Austral sobre a interação estratégica entre China e Estados Unidos envolvendo Taiwan. O trabalho procura encontrar variáveis para uma análise atual das relações entre Pequim e Washington sobre o tema em sua história: a Guerra da Coreia, as Primeiras Crises do Estreito, o Reatamento Sino-Estadunidense e a Terceira Crise do Estreito. Os autores concluem que a lógica da preempção é dominante na interação entre os dois países, mas que há proposições alternativas, tal como a do offshore control.
A China lançou na última sexta-feira o Banco Asiático de Investimento em Infraestrutura (BAII), juntamente com Mongólia, Usbequistão, Cazaquistão, Sri Lanka, Paquistão, Nepal, Bangladesh, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Índia e quase todos os países da ASEAN. Há indícios de que os EUA influenciaram países a não participar da iniciativa.
Os Estados Unidos e a China se enfrentaram durante um fórum de segurança da Ásia neste sábado, com o secretário de Defesa dos EUA acusando Pequim de desestabilizar a região, e um importante general chinês retrucando que seus comentários eram “ameaça e intimidação”.
Um dia depois do indiciamento de cinco oficiais chineses por espionagem cibernética nos Estados Unidos, a China convocou o embaixador norte-americano em Pequim, Max Baucus, e ameaçou represálias. Para as autoridades chinesas, a atitude de Washington foi “hipócrita” e o diplomata foi alertado nesta terça-feira (20/05) que as denúncias tinham prejudicado seriamente as relações entre os dois países.
O Departamento de Justiça dos Estados Unidos anunciou nesta segunda-feira (19/05) ter aberto processos criminais contra cinco membros das Forças Armadas chinesas por ciberespionagem. Grupo de hackers baseado em prédio do Exército na China teria roubado informações industriais e causado prejuízos milionários a empresas americanas. Pequim nega acusações e rompe cooperação cibernética com Washington.
Leia aqui o novo capítulo final do livro A tragédia da política das grandes potências, de John J. Mearsheimer, em que se comenta a ascensão chinesa com base nos pressupostos da teoria do realismo ofensivo procurando dizer se essa ascensão será pacífica ou não.
No bojo da reafirmação do compromisso com a Lei de Relações com Taiwan, o Congresso dos Estados Unidos autorizou a venda de quatro fragatas para o país, dizendo que seriam necessárias para a manutenção da paz e estabilidade no Pacífico Ocidental.
Ja Ian Chong argumenta que a reação de países que não estão na dianteria do poder mundial, i.e. potências intermediárias, a mudanças no equilíbrio de poder global podem amplificar ou moderar dilemas de segurança entre as grandes potências, podendo afetar a estabilidade regional e quiçá a sistêmica.
Após a quase-colisão entre belonaves chinesa e estadunidense no Mar do Sul da China que aconteceu no último dia 05/12, mas que só foi tornada pública na última sexta-feira (13/12), China afirma que o cruzador dos EUA estava ameaçando a sua segurança ao perseguir e importunar o novo porta-aviões chinês Liaoning.
Sinalizando o aumento das tensões entre Estados Unidos e China em mar aberto, embarcações das respectivas marinhas quase colidiram no Mar do Sul da China quando belonave chinesa atravessou o caminho de um cruzador estadunidense. Quase-colisão aconteceu no último dia 05/12, mas só foi tornada pública na última sexta-feira (13/12).
Chinese and American Ships Nearly Collide in South China Sea
The New York Times – 14/12/2013 – por Jane Perlez
In a sign of the increased tensions between the United States and China on the open seas, navy vessels from the two countries almost collided in the South China Sea when a Chinese ship cut across the bow of an American cruiser, a senior United States defense official said on Saturday.
A serious accident was averted when the U.S.S. Cowpens, a missile-carrying cruiser traveling in international waters, was forced to maneuver to avoid the Chinese vessel, the official said.
The episode, which occurred on Dec. 5 but did not become public until Friday, was one more example of the growing rivalry between China, a rising maritime power, and the United States, the dominant naval power in the Pacific region since World War II.
It came as the Obama administration has chastised China for imposing an air defense identification zone in the East China Sea over islands and airspace that are also claimed by Japan.
The U.S.S. Cowpens was observing the new Chinese aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, as it made its first voyage in the South China Sea from its home base in Qingdao, the headquarters of China’s North Sea Fleet, the defense official and American Navy experts said. The official and Navy experts spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
The Chinese vessel cut across the bow of the America ship at a distance of less than 200 yards, the defense official said. The vessel was similar to an American tank landing ship and was accompanying the aircraft carrier, apparently as a screen.
The tactic of the Chinese ship “was particularly aggressive” and “unhelpful in trying to increase cooperation between the two navies,” he said.
Analysts said the tense encounter underscored the dangers of the current situation in the area.
“This illustrates the anxieties between the United States and China, and it is very troubling,” said Lyle J. Goldstein, an associate professor at the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College on Rhode Island. “International politics on both sides call for ratcheting up of tensions, and I don’t see either side finding compromises. Neither side knows the other’s red lines.”
Surveillance activities by the United States of Chinese military operations have always been sensitive. In 2001, an American EP3 spy plane collided with a Chinese fighter jet in the waters off southern China, an accident that sent relations between Washington and Beijing into a freeze.
Ever since, Chinese officials have complained to senior American officials about American planes’ peering into Chinese waters, saying that the practice treats China like the enemy, a senior American official said recently. The United States replies with its own complaint: that the lack of transparency by China impels America to do its own reconnaissance, the official said.
The information office at the Chinese ministry of national defense did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
American officials said the U.S.S. Cowpens had been adhering to international guidelines governing such naval maneuvers.
“Our cruiser was operating in international waters of the South China Sea, not close into the coast and in the general vicinity of the aircraft carrier,” the defense official said.
The Chinese ship accompanying the aircraft carrier began shouldering the American cruiser, and then crossed its bow, he said. After making the evasive maneuver, there was “bridge-to-bridge” contact, in English, between the two ships, the official said. “It was tense but professional,” he said.
In a formal statement, the Pacific Fleet based in Hawaii said, “This incident underscores the need to ensure the highest standard of professional seamanship, including communications between vessels to mitigate the risk of an unintended incident or mishap.”
It was not clear how far the U.S.S. Cowpens, a vessel more than two decades old, was sailing from the Chinese aircraft carrier. But because of the sophisticated American radar, it did not have to be particularly close in order to observe it, naval experts said.
The Chinese aircraft carrier, a refurbished Ukrainian vessel, was launched last year, and is not yet fully operational. For instance, it does not carry a full complement of aircraft. Still, the United States Navy wants to understand how the Chinese are planning to use the carrier.
When it left port, the carrier was accompanied by two missile destroyers and two missile frigates, Chinese new media reported.
Officials from the American and Chinese navies meet every year to discuss maritime rules and incidents at sea, but so far, the gatherings have been fairly desultory, Mr. Goldstein said. “The maritime consultative agreement has been a disappointment to the American side,” he said.
The American defense official drew a comparison between the behavior and operations of Iranian and American navies, and that of the Chinese. “We operate in the vicinity of the Iranian navy,” he said. “The exchanges are curt but professional.”
The fact that the episode between the U.S.S. Cowpens and the Chinese ship took place in the South China Sea is bound to raise concerns, naval experts said. China contends that more than 80 percent of the sea is under its purview, and in a signal of its intention to enforce that claim, the nation has taken virtual ownership from the Philippines of the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.
In March 2009, five Chinese ships harassed the USNS Impeccable in international waters in the South China Sea, forcing the American ship to make an emergency maneuver in order to avoid a collision.
Projetos de modernização das forças armadas da China, tais como projetos de novos bombardeiros nucleares e <i>drones</i> de ataque, aumentam os receios estadunidenses, que procuram realizar pivô para a Ásia.
U.S. Spooked by China’s Nuke Bomber, Attack Drone Projects
Foreign Policy – 20/11/2013 – por Dan Lamothe
In June, the Chinese military received the first of its new, long-range bombers, the Hongzha-6K. It’s an upgraded model of the twin-engine plane the Chinese have used for decades, but has some significant new bells and whistles – most notably the likely ability to carry cruise missiles armed with nuclear warheads.
The bomber is among the ground likely to be covered at a House Armed Services Committee hearing Wednesday as members of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission testify about their annual report. It warns that the Chinese are “rapidly expanding and diversifying” their ability to strike U.S. bases, ships and aircraft throughout to the Pacific, including those in places like Guam that were previously out of reach. The report’s release comes as the U.S. simultaneously increases the frequency with which it interacts with the Chinese military, and blasts the country for hacking into U.S. computer networks to steal secrets.
The commission’s report strikes a balance between sounding the alarm on China’s ambitions and recommending continued cooperation on issues of common interest. But it warns about China’s rise in stark terms, saying the country has become increasingly aggressive in the way it handles long-standing issues with the Philippines, Japan and other nations.
“Although sovereignty disputes in the East and South China Seas are not new, China’s growing diplomatic, economic, and military clout is improving China’s ability to assert its interests,” it says. “It is increasingly clear that China does not intend to resolve the disputes through multilateral negotiations or the application of international laws and adjudicative processes but instead will use its growing power in support of coercive tactics that pressure its neighbors to concede to China’s claims.”
The commission highlighted the development of China’s new attack drone as another example of the country’s military development. First displayed at an air show in 2012 (pictured above), their Yi Long unmanned aerial vehicle closely resembles the MQ-9 Reaper, which can be armed with Hellfire missiles, bombs and other weapons.
The commission also warns against the growth of the Chinese navy, an issue that has increasingly has received attention as the U.S. military interacts with it. While U.S. officials fight over whether the U.S. navy should shrink, China is going in the opposite direction, the report says.
“By 2020, barring a U.S. naval renaissance, it is possible that China will become the world’s leading military shipbuilder in terms of the numbers of submarines, surface combatants and other naval surface vessels produced per year,” the report says, citing Chinese military experts Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins.
The report’s release comes as the Senate wrestles this week with the 2014 National Defense Authorization Act, the law outlining the Defense Department’s budget. Service chiefs also have continued to pointedly warn Congress about the effects of sequestration, automatic spending cuts that were put in place to reduce the federal deficit.
In one example, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert told the House Armed Services Committee in September that unless some funding is restored, one scenario under discussion would reduce the U.S. Navy in 2020 to between 255 and 260 ships, about 30 percent fewer than today. It would mean one or two fewer carrier strike groups and one or two fewer amphibious ready groups, the three-ship configurations that commonly carry U.S. Marines around the globe.
“We understand the pressing need for the nation to get its fiscal house in order,” Greenert said in prepared testimony. “DOD should do its part, but it is imperative we do so in a coherent and thoughtful manner to ensure appropriate readiness, warfighting capability and forward presence – the attributes we depend upon from our Navy.”
The commission’s report recommends boosting funding for U.S. shipbuilding so that at least 60 ships and 60 percent of the Navy’s homeports are in the Pacific by 2020 “so that the United States will have the capacity to maintain readiness and presence in the Western Pacific offset China’s growing military capabilities, and surge naval assets in the event of a contingency” – part of the U.S.’s previously announced plan to shift more military operations to the Pacific.
It is unclear whether that will occur now, however, in light of the budget crunch and continued hostilities across Northern Africa and the Middle East.
While the U.S. wrestles with its future naval presence in the Pacific, it is also expanding its engagement with the Chinese military on areas where common ground can be found. Between 2012 and 2013, the number of contacts between the U.S. military and its Chinese counterpart doubles from about 20 to 40, the commission’s report says. That counts visits by leaders, academic exchanges, joint exercises and other forms of interaction.
In September, two senior officers with the Chinese Navy traveled to San Diego and Washington, meeting with Greenert and touring a U.S. aircraft carrier and submarine, the report says. They also visited Camp Pendleton, Calif., where they interacted with Marine commanders, before visiting Navy leadership at the Pentagon and Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Md.
One other potential future bright spot: China will join more than 20 other nations next year in Rim of the Pacific military exercises around Hawaii – a first. The U.S. and China will continue to circle each other carefully until then, looking to learn about each other without offering more information than agreed upon.
A new face to US-China ties
Asia Times – 22/07/2010 – Peter Lee
The Barack Obama administration took office in 2009 determined to move beyond the unilateralism of the George W Bush years, and reassert America’s global influence as the most principled and powerful guarantor of rule-based multilateralism.
With respect to China, this approach was presented as a doctrine of “strategic reassurance”. However, the policy has not yielded the systemic breakthroughs that the Obama administration hoped to achieve on climate change, non-proliferation, Middle East security, still less on US-China relations.